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气候变化和人类活动对汉江上游径流变化影响的定量研究

发布日期:2025-07-27  文章来源:南水北调与水利科技   点击数:

作者

夏 军,马协一,邹 磊,王咏铃,景朝霞


单位

武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室    


中文摘要

以汉江上游为例,基于弹性系数法和水文模拟法定量估算气候变化和人类活动对流域径流的影响,探讨了变化环境下流域径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应特征。研究结果表明:1961年-2013年汉江上游流域径流呈明显下降趋势,并在1985年前后发生了突变;降水及潜在蒸散发在同时期内也逐渐降低,但变化趋势不显著。气候变化对径流变化的贡献率为42.8%~43.5%,人类活动对径流变化的贡献率为56.5%~57.2%,相比人类活动对汉江上游径流的影响稍大,且其对径流变化的影响呈现增长的趋势。


英文摘要


With the purpose of exploring the features of hydrological responses to climate change and human activities, a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions from climate variability and human activities to runoff changes in the Upper Hanjiang River basin was conducted using two methods, namely the elasticity method and the hydrological modeling method. The results showed that annual runoff underwent a significant decreasing trend over the period of 1961-2013, and a breaking point was detected in 1985. Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration both decreased gradually over the same period, but the trends were not significant. Climate variability accounted for 42.8%-43.5% of the decrease in runoff, and the impact of human activities accounted for 56.5%-57.2%, showing a more important influence on runoff changes. Moreover, the latter’s influence was in an increasing trend.