Zi-yu Li , Xian-qi Zhang , Xian-liang Liu , Xiao-yan Wu , Xin-yong Xu , Yu-ying Li , Shao-bo Liu. Multi-scale, multi-region, and multi-stage dynamics and drivers of landscape ecological risk in source areas of global mega Inter-Basin water transfer projects. Ecological Indicators 189（2026） 115182.
全球大型跨流域调水工程水源区景观生态风险的多尺度、多区域及多阶段动态与驱动因素
ABSTRACT：Under the dual pressures of global climate change and human activities, the cascading effects of large-scale interbasin water transfer projects on the landscape patterns and ecological risk of water source areas urgently require systematic evaluation. Taking Nanyang City, the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project (SNWDP-MR), as the study area, this research divided the period 1995–2024 into three stages—the pre-construction phase, the construction phase, and the operation phase—based on land-use data. Considering the functional differences among Nanyang, the Middle Route Water Source Area, and the Canal Buffer Zone, multi-scale, multi-region, and multi-stage landscape ecological risk index (ERI) assessments were conducted using grid scales of 2 km × 2 km, 3 km × 3 km, and 0.5 km × 0.5 km, respectively. The results showed that: (1) land-use change was driven by the triple forces of “urbanization–engineering–ecology”, with dominant drivers dynamically shifting across stages and regions; (2) low-risk areas continuously expanded while high-risk areas retreated and fragmented, with forest restoration and strict construction land control significantly reducing risk; (3) ecological risk in Nanyang was jointly controlled by land use, topography, and climate, while being primarily driven by the synergistic coupling of climatic conditions and topography in the Middle Route Water Source Area, and constrained by land use and topography in the Canal Buffer Zone. This study provides theoretical and methodological references for ecological impact assessment and sustainable management of similar projects worldwide.
Keywords: Landscape ecological risk index (ERI) ，The south-to-north water diversion middle route project (SNWDP-MR) ，Land-use change Multi-scale analysis， Driving mechanisms
Highlights
•Proposed a three-stage dynamic life-cycle framework for the SNWDP-MR.
•Established a function-oriented differentiated region scheme for the water source city.
•Developed a regionally adapted optimal scale selection method for ERI assessment.
•Constructed a multi-scale, multi-region, and multi-stage ERI assessment framework.
•Revealed natural and policy drivers of ERI in water source cities.
Graphical abstract
《Ecological Indicators》
《Ecological Indicators》旨在将生态和环境指标的监测与评估与管理实践相结合。该杂志为应用科学的发展、传统指标方法的回顾，以及理论、建模和定量应用（如指数开发）提供了一个讨论平台。将发布以下领域的研究成果：• 生态环境指标及其各个方面；• 新指标及其开发、测试和使用的新方法；• 指标的开发与建模，例如跨多个尺度和资源的指标套件的应用；• 资源、系统和规模特定指标的分析与研究；• 整合社会和其他估值指标的方法，以科学严谨和政治相关的方式进行基于指标的评估监测；• 如何将研究指标转化为直接应用于管理目的；• 更广泛的评估目标和方法，例如生物多样性、生物完整性和可持续性，通过使用指标；• 资源特定指标，例如景观、农业生态系统、森林、湿地等。
